Amid warmer-than-average fall temperatures, Colorado’s snowpack levels are pacing above normal. 

Snowpack, also referred to as snow-water equivalent, is a measurement of how much liquid water is held within the state’s snowfields — a key indicator for drought conditions and seasonal runoff. 

As of Friday, Nov. 1, the statewide snowpack was at 143% of the 30-year median, which is considered the historical normal, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Still, Colorado has a long way to go before experts know how this season’s snowpack will perform compared to previous years. Snowpack typically begins building in mid-October and peaks around early April. 

“Like in football, we’re early in the first quarter. … There’s a lot of season ahead of us,” said Matthew Aleksa, forecaster for the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. “But we are off to a good start.”

Recent storms have delivered cooler weather to mountain and Western Slope areas that, in some places, were around 15 degrees above normal during the first half of October, Aleksa said. The bulk of the snowfall has been concentrated in the San Juans region, which netted between 1 to 2 feet of fresh powder during the two most recent storms that hit in late October. 

Snowpack levels for river basins in that area sit well above 200% of normal, helping boost the state’s overall numbers. Yet in the eastern part of the state, persistent dry weather has stymied snowpack. 

In the South Platte River Basin, which stretches along the Front Range from Fort Collins down to Castle Rock, snowpack stood at 43% of normal as of Friday. In the Arkansas River Basin, which spans the south central part of the state, levels stood at 84%. 

Still, when looking at statewide data, “We’re pretty close to where we should be normally this time of year, maybe a little above,” Aleksa said. 

But that can change rapidly depending on storm patterns and even a brief stretch of drier weather can send snowpack levels plummeting. 

“The benefit of the last (storm) systems is it helped bring our temperatures from well above normal down to near or even slightly below-normal,” Aleksa said. “Needless to say, late this weekend and into next week it does look like we’re going to see more mountain snow and cooler conditions … (and) these systems coming in help reinforce that cold air and keep these temperatures lower.” 

Forecasts from OpenSnow.com show a fairly active start to November, with the next storm arriving sometime Sunday afternoon. Around 8 inches of snowfall could be possible near and east of the Continental Divide, though areas as west as Berthoud Pass could also see similar numbers. 

In a Friday blog post, OpenSnow founding meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote, “The longer-range outlook is all good news. Some early seasons are warm and keep us waiting for winter to arrive, but it looks like we’re going to be on the storm train for the first half of November with a few storms each week.”

The Climate Prediction Center’s month-long outlook for November shows equal chances that Colorado will see above- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Its three-month forecast for November, December and January shows Colorado’s mountain areas having a slight chance of seeing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. 

With recent storms favoring the southwestern corner of the state, Aleksa said patterns could shift towards the central and northern mountains as La Nina conditions continue to develop. 

An atmospheric pattern driven by temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Nina is generally characterized by more precipitous, cooler weather in the north and drier, warmer weather in the south. During the 2023-24 winter season, the opposite pattern, El Nino, was present, which can have the inverse effect. 

Neither pattern has a historically strong influence on Colorado’s snow season, but it is possible there could be some effects later into the winter. 

“It seems like the southern mountains are seeing more of the snow right now,” Aleksa said. “But that could transition early in the new year with the northern mountains seeing more.”