Colorado’s river basins could end the winter season with less snowpack than last year as levels struggle to keep up with the historic average. 

Yet reservoirs, rivers, streams and tributaries may not suffer in the same way thanks to a stockpile of runoff from last season, said Colorado Division of Water Resources Engineer James Heath.

“With our reservoirs as full as they are, we may see a better river runoff than what is typical with this snowpack,” Heath said.

In a typical season, Colorado’s statewide snowpack peaks at a snow water equivalent of 17.5 inches, which means there is typically 17.5 inches of precipitation frozen in the state’s snowfields.

As of Feb. 12, state snowpack sat at 10.3 inches of snow water equivalent or 96% of the 30-year-median, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. On that same date last year, snowpack levels stood at 13 inches before reaching a peak of 21.8 inches. 

Last season’s strong runoff, fueled by heavy snowfall throughout the winter and buoyed by above-average precipitation in the spring and summer, is poised to help reservoirs fill and spill again this year. 

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According to OpenSnow founding meteorologist Joel Gratz, Colorado is still in good shape this season compared to some other states. 

“Looking across the western U.S., we are in a lucky zone with close to average snowpack,” Gratz wrote in a Feb. 12 post on OpenSnow.com. “Other locations with near- or above-average snowpack include New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, most of Nevada, southern Idaho, and eastern Oregon. Generally, the farther north you go, the lower the numbers become.”

Storms over the past month have given Colorado’s snowpack a significant boost after a slow start to the season, with just under two months to go before the median statewide peak, which is April 7. 

For experts like Heath, snowpack is an important indicator for what the state’s water resources will become in summer. 

“A lot of agencies, including ours, are monitoring the snowpack,” Heath said. “We’re looking primarily to see how it might impact our administration of water rights in our basin.” 

In the Colorado River Headwaters Basin, where Heath’s division focuses, snowpack is just shy of the 30-year-median at 97%. 

Stretching across much of the High Country and into the Western Slope, the basin is a crucial water provider for the state. Beyond the counties it immediately services — which includes Grand, Summit, Eagle and Pitkin — the basin feeds reservoirs like Dillon Reservoir, a major water source for the Front Range.

“We’re running right along that median line, and hopefully we continue to get additional snow events into the future,” Heath said of the basin’s snowpack. 

While multiple storms are forecast over the next 10 days, none appear to be bringing heavy amounts of snow. OpenSnow.com is predicting intermittent storms with tempered weather that may make it a challenge for snow to accumulate. 

According to projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Colorado has equal chances of seeing above or below-normal precipitation in most of the state through April. 

As Heath put it, “We’re not out of the woods yet.”