Over the course of the last two decades, few people have become as synonymous with powder predictions as Joel Gratz, the owner and founder of OpenSnow.

What began as a simple email to friends and family in 2007 has evolved into a worldwide following as skiers and snowboarders eagerly, and frequently, rely on his forecasts to chase the best potential powder days. 

In certain circles of snowbound enthusiasts, Gratz holds a position similar to that of a deity. 

While OpenSnow has expanded far beyond Colorado, its roots, and Gratz’s passion for powder, hold deep ties to Steamboat Springs.

Long before OpenSnow gained its standing in the world of snowsports, Joel Gratz was just another East Coaster who held a fascination for meteorology and deep powder skiing. Growing up outside of Philadelphia, he spent his youth chasing storms along the Atlantic Coast, hoping for any snowfall that would allow for powder runs at his favorite resorts.

His love for snow, and the forecasting of it, led to his attendance at Penn State, where he studied meteorology. He then relocated to Boulder to gain his graduate degree at the University of Colorado

In November 2005, a series of events occurred that would lead to a revolution in the world of skiing and snowboarding. A friend in Steamboat sent Gratz a message. A forecast that had predicted only a modest amount of snow proved to be very wrong. Rather than the low totals that had been predicted, Steamboat received 48 inches in just 48 hours, which was an exhilarating surprise.

But for the meteorologist in Gratz, it was an irresistible mystery.

“I was incredulous,” Gratz recalled. “I realized the forecast doesn’t always go exactly as planned, but this was a miraculous bust and I had to understand why.”

That surprise storm led to a fascination with Steamboat’s unique meteorology. Since then, he has worked to understand how seemingly small atmospheric changes could result in major snowfall discrepancies.

The phenomenon experienced that day, and on countless days since, would eventually come to be known as the “Steamboat Surprise,” one of the most thrilling, yet difficult to predict, snow-based events in Colorado snowsports.

Gratz noted that while forecasting snowfall in Colorado is never easy, Steamboat presents its own set of challenges. Unlike mountains such as Wolf Creek, where snowfall is somewhat more predictable, Steamboat’s weather and snowfall patterns are full of surprises.

The three critical factors — temperature, wind direction and moisture — must align perfectly for an epic powder day, and the margin in forecasting them can at times be razor-thin.

“The temperature needs to be around 5 degrees Fahrenheit at the top (of Mt. Werner),” said Gratz. “The wind direction must come from the west or west-northwest. If the winds shift to the northwest, they hit the Elkhead Mountains first and disrupt the snowfall. And then there’s moisture, a key ingredient that is notoriously difficult to forecast accurately at high elevations.”

Buffalo Pass, just a few miles from Steamboat, can at times receive nearly 40% more snowfall than the resort itself, highlighting the impact of microclimates on the amount of snow that accumulates. Forecast models often struggle to pinpoint how much moisture will be available in the crucial atmospheric layer above Steamboat, leading to scenarios where modest predictions can suddenly turn into legendary powder days.

For skiers, these surprises are a dream come true. For forecasters, they’re a challenge that can drive an obsession.

By 2007, Gratz had turned his passion for forecasting into a side project as he sent out snow predictions via email to a small group of friends, family and co-workers. Word spread, and by 2009, local reporters began reaching out to Gratz to pick his brain about upcoming snow events. He soon realized there was a demand for ski-specific forecasts that mainstream weather outlets simply couldn’t provide.

In January 2010, he quit his job in hurricane and earthquake insurance to pursue OpenSnow full-time. Despite the risk associated with the shift, he felt confident in his knowledge of both meteorology and business, having earned an MBA alongside his graduate degree in meteorological studies.

“I had no significant other, no pets, a roommate to split my mortgage and a dad who reassured me that if it all went south, I wouldn’t be sleeping on the street,” he said with a laugh. “It was the least risky time to take a big risk.”

OpenSnow rapidly grew. As it did, Gratz connected with other like-minded forecasters across the country and began uniting them under one platform to provide localized, skier-focused weather reports. The platform, which is now both web- and app-based, has 11 full-time employees and 14 seasonal contract forecasters.

Through it all, Steamboat remained at the center of his forecasting passions.

Despite ski forays around the world since OpenSnow’s founding, some of Gratz’s most cherished snow-bound memories remain tied to Steamboat. One of his deepest powder days, one he still dreams about, came late in 2007.

“I just remember skiing down a run, and the snow was breaking at my chest,” he recalled. “Not because I was stopping or spraying it up, but because it was literally chest-deep and so fluffy that it didn’t slow me down. That was one of the moments where I was just completely enamored that this could happen, that this much snow could exist in one place.”

For Gratz, skiing powder isn’t just about that feeling of weightlessness, it’s about the perfect confluence of science and nature. The satisfaction of tracking a storm, making a prediction and then watching it all come together is what fuels his passion.

The success of OpenSnow, however, has not come without certain degrees of criticism. Some skiers argue that pinpoint powder forecasts have led to more crowded slopes and fewer “secret” powder days. Gratz understands the sentiment but also acknowledges that open access to weather data is an inevitable reality.

“There’s no doubt that powder days are more crowded now,” he admitted. “And that’s partially due to OpenSnow, but it’s also because of technology in general. Instagram, social media and better forecasting tools mean people are more informed than ever. But there are still surprises. There’s still uncertainty. And there are still ways to find solitude, you just have to work a little harder for it.”

For Gratz, OpenSnow isn’t just a business, it’s a labor of love. The early morning forecasts, the constant analysis of models and the joy of getting it right (or the frustration of getting it wrong) are all part of what makes this his dream job.

“If all I did was ski powder, I’d get bored,” he said. “If all I did was forecast, I’d get bored. If all I did was run a business, I’d get bored. But by combining all of these things, I get to wake up every day and do something that is completely satisfying.”

And for the thousands of skiers around the world who have grown to practically worship OpenSnow, that passion has morphed into something invaluable — the ability to chase, and sometimes even predict, the perfect powder day.

Despite now being responsible for a forecasting platform that covers snowfall around the world, Gratz still wakes up early and checks the models.

He looks, analyzes and hopes for those rare and beautiful moments when science and snow align to bring skiers and riders something magical, just as they did for him when he first discovered the magic of the “Steamboat Surprise.”

This story is from SteamboatPilot.com