Vacation rental bookings in Summit County are underway for the 2023-24 ski season, and early trends continue to show a slight cooling off from the tourism boom that manifested during the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Summit’s market is still expected to fare better than most others nationwide, at least according to early data points from Key Data, which tracks short-term rental and hotel listings and booking in markets like Breckenridge. 

“2021 and 2022 were kind of banner years for the U.S. short-term rental segment overall. We saw a lot of increased supply. So everybody decided short-term rentals were a great way to make money,” said Executive Director of Data Insights at Key Data Melanie Brown during an Oct. 13 presentation at the Ski Area COO Summit in Breckenridge.

As of mid-November, some industry leaders were seeing reasons to be both optimistic and tepid. 

“I wouldn’t be concerned — but also certainly not comfortable — with where we’re at right now,” said Julie Koster, executive director for Summit Alliance of Vacation Rental Managers, which represents more than 4,500 vacation rental properties in Summit County. 

According to Koster, spending on lodging is up compared to this time last year, with the average daily rate sitting at around $566 compared to $520 last year. Yet occupancy — or the rate of bookings — is down by about 10%. 

Still, it represents a better situation from where the vacation rental market found itself at the beginning of this year. While short-term rental properties reported more bookings in January, many were for shorter stays which ultimately generated less revenue. As Koster put it, “We did more work for less money.” 

While Koster said she would “certainly like to see occupancy improve and keep the town running,” more spending on daily rates could mean higher spenders in the county. 

“When we’re getting a higher dollar a night out of our guests and a higher occupancy, everybody in our community benefits,” she said. 

Looking ahead, there’s still plenty of inventory available for the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, something Koster said would’ve been unimaginable pre-COVID. 

“We feel like we can’t compare things to pre-pandemic anymore because we’ll never be in that same situation,” she said. “People’s habits changed so dramatically during the pandemic. People just aren’t planning things six months or a year out like they used to. People are a lot more spontaneous.”

Countywide, bookings are coming in far closer to the respective arrival dates compared to this time last year. Koster said visitors are booking on average eight days closer to their arrival. 

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The same is true in Breckenridge, where bookings are coming in about five days closer to arrival according to Breckenridge Tourism Office Director of Operations Bill Wishowski. If this trend continues, it could make it more difficult for property managers to adjust their rates, Wishowski said. 

“It’s kind of like a massive poker game. If you have inventory that’s available longer than you may want it to, people are going to react differently — ‘Do I hold this price or do I discount and hopefully sell it? Will it sell? Will it not sell?'”

Another data point that stands out to Wishowski is the average length of stay, which is down by about one-tenth of a night for an average of 4.5 nights. 

“It doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you add up 1,000 reservations at that one-tenth of a night, now all of a sudden you have 100 nights down,” he said. 

Other trends are holding mostly steady compared to last year, with bookings up 1% — essentially flat — and the average daily rate down only $4, Wishowski said. Since the tourism office began collecting data for the 2023-24 winter season on Nov. 1, Wishowsk said it’s too early to predict where trends will go. He believes the town isn’t even at 50% capacity for all its available inventory. 

“If this is a race, we haven’t even approached halfway,” Wishowski said. “There’s a lot of winter season that has to be booked … and there’s still a fair amount of Christmas business due on the books, too.” 

There are a number of factors that could be driving tighter booking windows. 

Visitors buying flights to Denver International Airport — one of the busiest in the country — may be doing so on the turn of a dime based on pricing. As travel levels return to and even exceed those of pre-pandemic years, Colorado may be seeing an influx of first-time ski vacationers who aren’t as comfortable with booking in a resort area weeks or months in advance. 

“That experienced traveler, who really wants to get what they want and knows how early they have to book, they’re on it,” Wishowski said. “Those folks who are probably not as experienced, not as knowledgeable, not as intense, they’re the ones who are waiting a little bit longer.” 

Drier, warmer weather in October and November may have also deterred in-state visitors, particularly along the Front Range, from booking earlier. However, Wishowski did say that bookings spiked during snow dumps at the end of October and earlier this month. 

It remains to be seen how competitive the county will be in terms of snow totals. While last season brought above-average snowfall to much of Colorado, Summit County saw nowhere near the accumulation of ski areas like Steamboat Ski Resort — which had its second-snowiest season on record. 

“This winter season is going to be tight. I think we’re going to see a lot of business volume that’s going to be comparable to what we saw a year ago with some shifts in some of the arrival patterns that may throw some curveballs for businesses,” Wishowski said. 

Another unknown is how short-term rental regulations will impact the rental market this season. Breckenridge’s town council was the first local government to impose restrictions on the amount of homes that can operate as short-term rentals after officials voted for the measure in 2021. 

So far this season, Key Data, which the tourism office uses to help track listings, is showing a roughly 2% decrease in available nights from short-term rental properties, he added. 

“We had been seeing pretty consistent increases in the number of (short-term rental) units that are available in Breckenridge,” Wishowski said. “I think now that’s kind of leveled off … and an actual decrease in the number of nights that are available.” 

Koster said she is worried the more recently adopted regulations in unincorporated areas of the county, which county commissioners voted for in February, will have a negative impact on both renters and visitors in particular because of a 35-per-year booking limit. 

Some vacation rental owners were far exceeding that amount last year, allowing them more flexibility in their booking minimums and rates. But now, Koster said those properties may have to impose higher per-night minimums or higher rates for shorter stays. 

“They have to be hyper-vigilant with their calendar. So I think it will affect the length of stay in the county,” she said.